在法庭对前首相纳吉和他的妻子罗斯玛的腐败案件作出判决后，各评论员都关注这事态发展的影响。尤其这会对马来西亚的政治和政治生态有多大的突破。
一些出现在外国媒体上的最乐观观点——在我看来，是种浪漫主义——称赞法院对纳吉的判决是“历史性的”，而另一些人则称其结果为“史无前例”、“马来西亚人吉日”或称之为“人民的胜利”。
根据国会反对党领袖安华的说法，对纳吉的裁决是“民主和法治的重要时刻”。他指出，这起刑事案件是在纳吉败选下台并由希盟政府执政后提控的，因此间接声称这是当前反对派功劳。
“我感谢司法机构有决心和勇气，根据事实和法律做出判决，而不是屈服于马来西亚人数十年来所经历的，当权者对司法机构的政治影响。”
尽管国人普遍感到欣慰，但对任何过早庆祝马来西亚政治可能就此出现新曙光时，都应保持谨慎态度。
事实上，纳吉对巫统基层，马来社会和选区的影响似乎没有因此削弱。从马来社交媒体的反应来看，有罪判决反可能会加强纳吉对马来人的影响，进而对第15届大选产生连锁反应。
一年前，当纳吉被高庭法官莫哈末纳兹兰判决，在SRC公司的4200万令吉洗钱案中，犯下所有七项滥用职权、刑事失信和洗钱罪名时，一名博主，马来西亚独行侠@maverick_97就指出：“你永远不会明白巫统是如何渗透到马来中心地带。他们的忠诚不是用金钱买来的，而是通过灌输只有巫统才能照顾马来人的信念构建起来”
因此，即将到来的选举，将再次见证马来选民在决定马来西亚政治未来走向上发挥的关键作用。
来届大选，巫统及其联盟一旦获胜，很可能会看到纳吉获得赦免，让他从监狱中释放出来。这可能会让纳吉重返政坛，成为最具影响力和最受欢迎的领袖。
从净选盟发起联署，要求国家元首苏丹阿都拉别赦免纳吉的请愿冷淡反应，也可作为马来人对纳吉定罪反应的一个指标。
基于一些政党已经考虑为纳吉提出赦免，净选盟线上发起联署呼吁国家元首拒绝赦免纳吉。请愿书认为：
“作为一个国家，我们绝不能容忍腐败或贪污，无论那个人是谁。让纳吉服刑12年并缴纳2亿1000万令吉的罚款，以警惕任何认为可以滥用职权腐败的领导人。”
在撰写本文时，只有12万212人签署了这份联署。
与此同时，巫统也发动联署，动员党员全力支持要求王室赦免纳吉。
根据霹雳州巫统主席拿督斯里沙拉尼的说法，这项来自党主席拿督斯里阿末扎希的指示并非罕见。
“当然，巫统支持者对纳吉的命运表示同情，我们会为他寻求王室赦免。”
“当然，王室也要看看有多少人联署。总的来说，巫统有300万党员，如果所有巫统成员都签署请愿书，那就太好了。”
无论这两项联署或即将举行的选举结果如何，马来西亚人都应感到安慰，法院的判决结果，虽只是一小步，却是重要的一步，是我们迈向一个遵守法治，并拥有一个不受任何外部因素——无论是政治、经济还是社会文化和宗教影响的司法机构之国家。
为此，我们应该感谢联邦法院首席大法官东姑麦蒙和审理此案的其他联邦法院法官——东马大法官丹斯里阿邦依斯干达、联邦法院法官拿督娜丽妮、拿督林添钻和拿督莫哈末扎比丁，以及高庭法官莫哈末纳兹兰和其他早前参与纳吉案庭审的法官。
同时也别遗忘了由希旦峇兰领导的控方团队亦扮演同样关键角色，他们煞费苦心地处理了这宗涉及腐败、洗钱和贿赂的大案。他们承受的外部压力，甚至可能比参与这个国家历史上最引人注目的腐败案件的法官还要大。
他们所有人——法官和检察官员——应该得到认可和赞誉，因为他们拒绝屈服于法庭帮及其支持者施加的威胁和压力。
最后，要警惕的是-当前的政治腐败案件，只是高层腐败行为的冰山一角，这些涉及政党和政治领导人及其亲信的贪腐在过去50年中使国家损失了数千亿。
司法机构的所有成员-以及马来西亚法律界的律师-需要更加努力，以证明国家的司法机构最终坚守了法治阵地，重申其失去的独立性，也许最重要的是，开始重新定义行政、立法和司法之间所需关键分权的漫长旅程，尤其修复自马哈迪在1980年代执政时期开始就遭受破坏的体制。
林德宜《纳吉定罪对政局有多大改变？》原文：
Najib Verdict: How Big a Game Changer
Following the court verdict on the corruption cases of ex PM Najib and his wife, Rosmah, various commentators have focused on what are the implications of these developments. Assessments have also appeared on how big a breakthrough this is for Malaysia’s politics and political life.
Some of the most optimistic opinions which appear in the foreign media – in my opinion, quite romantic – have hailed the court decision on Najib as “historic” whilst others have termed the outcome as “unprecedented”, “an auspicious day for Malaysians” or referred to it as “the people’s victory”.
According to Anwar Ibrahim, the opposition leader in Parliament, the ruling on Najib was a “momentous occasion for democracy and the rule of law”. He pointed out that the criminal case was filed after Mr. Najib was voted out and a new Pakatan Harapan government took over, thus indirectly claiming credit for the current opposition.
“I recognize the resoluteness and bravery of the judiciary to reach its decision based on facts and laws, and not succumb to the political influence of those in power, which we Malaysians experienced for decades,”
Despite the general euphoria, there should be caution in any premature celebration by Malaysians that a new dawn may be appearing in Malaysian politics.
In fact Najib’s grip on UMNO’s grassroots membership as well as the Malay community and political constituency does not appear to have diminished. It may have been strengthened by the guilty verdict judging from the response in the Malay social media which could have ripple effects on GE15.
A year earlier, when Najib was found guilty of all seven charges of abuse of power, criminal breach of trust and money laundering in relation to RM42 million belonging to SRC International Sdn Bhd. by High Court Judge Mohd Nazlan Mohd Ghazali’, a blogger, Malaysian Maverick blogger @maverick_97 pointed out
“What you will never understand is Umno’s penetration into the Malay Heartland. Their loyalty isn’t bought by money, it’s bought by instilling the belief that only Umno can take care of you”
The coming elections will again see the Malay electorate play the key role in determining the political future of Malaysia.
An electoral outcome in which UMNO the dominant party and its coalition partners secure victory may well see Najib receive a pardon freeing him from prison. It may also see Najib’s return to active politics as the country’s most influential and popular political leader.
One indicator of how the wind is blowing on the Malay response to Najib’s conviction is the lukewarm response to the Bersih initiated petition to the Yang di-Pertuan Agong Al-Sultan Abdullah Ri’ayatuddin Al-Mustafa Billah Shah
Noting that some parties are already thinking of applying for a royal pardon, the online petition appealed to YDP Agong to deny any appeal for pardon. The petition argues:
“As a nation, we must not tolerate corruption or the corrupt, whoever that person may be. Let Najib serve his 12 years in jail and pay the RM210 millions fine so as to serve as an example to any leaders who think they can corruptly abuse their position of authority.”
(See https://www.change.org/p/petisyen-kepada-kdymm-yang-di-pertuan-agong-najib-tidak-wajar-diampunkan?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email)
At the time of writing there were 120,212 signatories for this petition.
Meanwhile Umno members have been asked for their full support behind a counter petition seeking a royal pardon for Najib.
According to Perak Umno chairman Datuk Seri Saarani Mohamad the instruction, which came from party president Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, was not unusual.
“Of course, Umno supporters are in sympathy with Najib’s fate and we will seek a royal pardon for him.
“Of course, the Palace wants to see how many people request it. Overall, Umno has three million members and it would be great if all Umno members sign the petition.”
One Step Forward
Whatever the outcome of these two petitions or the coming election, Malaysians can for now take away the consolation that the court findings are one small but important step forward in our progress towards a nation that observes the rule of law and has a judiciary that is truly independent from any external influence – whether political, economic or socio-cultural and religious.
For this we should thank Chief Justice Tengku Maimun Tuan Mat and her panel of Federal court judges – Tan Sri Abang Iskandar Abang Hashim, Datuk Nalini Pathmanathan, Datuk Mary Lim Thiam Suan and Datuk Muhamad Zabidin Mohd Diah – as well as Judge Naslan and the other judges involved in the earlier court hearings on Najib’s case.
Largely forgotten in the outpouring of tributes is the equally key role played by the prosecutor team led by V Sithambaram that painstakingly put together the case of corruption, money laundering and bribery. The prosecution team was likely to have been subject to even greater external pressure than the judges involved in this highest profile corruption case in the nation’s history.
All of them – judges and prosecution officials – thoroughly deserve recognition and accolades for refusing to give in to the threats and pressure exerted on them by the court cluster grouping and its supporters.
One final caveat – the current crop of politically assisted corruption cases really represent the tip of the iceberg of high level corrupt practices involving political parties and political leaders and their cronies which have cost the nation hundreds of billion ringgit in the last 50 years.
All members of the judiciary – as well as the lawyers in Malaysia’s legal service – need to work harder to prove that the nation’s judiciary has finally stood firm on the rule of law; is reasserting its lost independence and perhaps, most important of all, has began the long journey to redefine once again the critical separation needed between the Executive, Legislative and Judiciary which was abused especially beginning from Dr. Mahathir’s period of leadership in the 1980s.
评论: 林德宜(公共政策分析学者)