最新的地缘政治发展表明,2023年和之后年份,对于那些关心和维护全球和平以及人类生存的人们来说,可能是最具挑战的时代。

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这可从世界末日时钟向前调整了10秒,距离象征世界末日来临的子夜仅剩90秒上反映出来。这主要是由于俄罗斯──乌克兰战争和动用核武器风险的增加。

在2020年,末日时钟重新设定为距离子夜只有100秒,是基于气候危机和全球规范与机制因技术变革和生物威胁(如新冠病毒)而崩溃的影响。
根据前联合国人权事务高级专员玛丽罗宾逊的说法:

“世界末日之锺正在为全人类敲响警钟。我们正处于悬崖边上。但是我们的领导人没有采取快速或大规模行动,以确保世界和平,环境宜居。从减少碳排放到加强军备控制条约和大流行病防范的投入,我们知道需要做什么。科学上是明确的,但政治上缺乏意愿。如果我们要避免灾难,必须在2023年作出改变。我们正面临多重生存危机。领导者需要危机思维。”

她的评论中缺少的是,这一发展背后的主要因素是以美国为首的西方决心加快与俄罗斯和中国开战的势头,从而增加全球核冲突的风险。

从世界末日时钟重置后的两项最新发展可以看出华盛顿及其盟友的战争鹰派心态。

德国外交部长安娜莱娜贝尔伯克在法国斯特拉斯堡举行的欧洲委员会会议上发表讲话称,“我们是在与俄罗斯开战,而(欧盟)不应未战先乱”。 这说法与德国政府早些时候声称正在寻求方案,和平结束俄乌冲突的说法相悖。

自德国决定向乌克兰提供豹2坦克,从而放弃了之前不向冲突地区提供武器的政策后,其他北约成员国和美国也宣布,他们将提供类似的武器,以使乌克兰能够赢得对俄罗斯的战争

中国的回应

美国四星上将,美国空军机动司令部司令官迈克米尼汉已下令动员5万军人和500架飞机做好与中国一战的准备,他预计这将在2025年发生。这由迈克米尼汉发出的公务便笺泄露出来,随之被美国和世界各地媒体广泛报导,他下令指挥官 2月28日之前向他报告与中国作战所做的准备。此外,他还指示指挥官 在训练中敢于做冒险的准备。

针对德国和北约的升级行动,俄罗斯驻欧洲安全与合作组织(OSCE,欧安组织)代表团团长康斯坦丁·加夫里洛夫在代表俄罗斯政府发表声明时表示:

“我们知道,M1艾布兰坦克(M1 Abrams)和豹2坦克(Leopard-2),以及布莱德雷(Bradley)和貂鼠式(Marder)步兵战车,都装备有铀芯穿甲弹,其使用会导致该地区受到‘放射性’污染,过去在南斯拉夫内战和伊拉克战争中就发生过类似事件。”

“如果向基辅提供这种用于北约重型军事装备的炮弹,我们将把其视为对俄罗斯使用‘肮脏的核弹’,后果自负。”

官方声明中没有说的是,随之而来的后果可能包括俄罗斯有意或误判地在乌克兰战场使用核武器,从而将世界末日时钟敲响 。

截至1月31日时,中国尚未对米尼汉将军事件发表评论。或许中国军方领导人意识到“口水战”是没意义的,但他们肯定会密切关注事态发展。

世界其他国家不应该对西方战争鹰派的强硬态度掉以轻心,多年来,西方鹰派与西方主流媒体联手,一直向西方世界和盟友洗脑,让他们仇视中国,现在又仇恨俄罗斯。

这场仇恨运动如今再提升,以合理化对俄罗斯和中国进行军事打击的基础。

美国战略棋子

支持美国和欧洲鹰派的欧洲和亚洲国家应该警惕,他们将成为美国战略的主要受害者,美国战略已将北约拖入乌克兰战争,并决心在台湾问题上开辟战场,把日本、澳洲和其他国家拉进来,以打倒中国。

两条战线,不涉及美国军人和开支,这是拜登旨在维护美国霸权的梦想战略。通过这一点,美国可以继续成为世界上最重要的军火和武器制造商。

难怪近几年美股表现最强劲的就是波音、洛克希德马丁(Lockheed Martin,全球最大的国防工业承包商及美国航空航太制造商)、诺斯罗普格鲁曼(Northrop Grumman国防工业)、通用动力(General Dynamics国防工业)和雷神(Raytheon国防工业),等军事和国防股。

为了保住美国在政治和经济领域霸主地位,没有什么神圣是不可侵犯的。当然也不排除核战!

林德宜《西方鹰派推进末日时钟》原文:Doomsday Clock Advances as the West War Hawks Try to Out-Hawk Each Other

The latest geo-political developments indicate that 2023 and beyond may prove to be the most challenging period for those concerned with the maintenance of global peace as well as for the survival of humanity.  

Acknowledgement of this comes from the resetting of the Doomsday Clock at 90 seconds to midnight due largely but not exclusively to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the increased risk of nuclear escalation. 

Previously set at 100 seconds in 2020 the new Clock time is also influenced by the climate crisis and the breakdown of global norms and institutions needed to mitigate risks from advanced technologies and biological threats such as COVID-19.

According to Mary Robinson, former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights:

“The Doomsday Clock is sounding an alarm for the whole of humanity. We are on the brink of a precipice. But our leaders are not acting at sufficient speed or scale to secure a peaceful and liveable planet. From cutting carbon emissions to strengthening arms control treaties and investing in pandemic preparedness, we know what needs to be done. The science is clear, but the political will is lacking. This must change in 2023 if we are to avert catastrophe. We are facing multiple, existential crises. Leaders need a crisis mindset.”

What is missing in her comment is that the major factor behind this development is that the West led by the United States is determined to accelerate the momentum towards war with Russia and China thus multiplying the risk of global nuclear conflict. 

Western War Hawks

The mindset of the war hawks in Washington and its allies can be discerned from these two most recent reports since the resetting of the Doomsday clock.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock speaking at a Council of Europe meeting in Strasbourg declared that “we are fighting a war against Russia and not against each other”.  This admission is contrary to the earlier German government claim that it is seeking a peaceful end to the conflict.

Since then Germany has abandoned its previous policy of not providing weapons to conflict zones through its decision to deliver Ukraine with Leopard tanks. This has been followed by announcements by other NATO members and the US that they will deliver similar weaponry to enable Ukraine to win its war against Russia

US four star general, Mike Munihan, head of American Air Mobility command has ordered the 50,000 members and 500 planes under his command to get ready for war with China which he predicts will take place in 2025. In his signed leaked memo which has been widely reported by American media and has made news in media all round the world  he advised his commanders to report all major efforts to prepare for the China fight to report to him by Feb 28. Further he directed all personnel to prepare by firing “a clip” at a 7-metre target, and to “aim for the head”.

Russia’s Response

In response to the German and NATO escalation, Konstantin Gavrilov,  the head of the Russia Delegation to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in a statement noted on behalf of the Russian Government: 

“We know that the M1 Abrams & Leopard-2 tanks, as well as the Bradley and Marder infantry fighting vehicles, are armed with uranium-core armour-piercing projectiles, the use of which leads to [radioactive] contamination of the area, as happened in Yugoslavia and Iraq.

If such shells are delivered to Kyiv, we will consider this as the use of dirty nuclear bombs against Russia, with all the ensuing consequences.” 

What was left unsaid in the official statement is that ensuing consequences may include Russia’s use – by intention or miscalculation – of nuclear weaponry in the battlefield in Ukraine, thus effectively resetting the Doomsday Clock at zero. 

China’s Response

China has not commented on Gen Munihan’s memo. Perhaps China’s military leaders are aware that talk is cheap but they surely will have read of it and will be taking notice. 

The Rest of the World  

The rest of the world should not take lightly the ratcheting by the West’s war hawks, which together with western mainstream media for several years now, have been brainwashing the West and allies to hate China, and now Russia. 

This hate campaign is now being upped several notches so as to soften the ground for military strikes against Russia and China. 

Supporters of US and European war hawks in Europe and Asia should be alerted that they will be the main victims of a US strategy that has sucked NATO into the Ukraine War, and is determined to start another one over Taiwan, with Japan, Australia and others drawn in to take down China. 

Two war fronts, without involving US soldiers and expenditure, is the Biden dream strategy aimed at the maintenance of US hegemony. Through this incidentally, the US can continue being the world’s foremost military arms and weapons manufacturer and merchant. 

It is not surprising that the strongest stocks in the US in recent years have been that of  military and defence stocks such as Boeing,  Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics and Raytheon. 

Nothing is sacred to preserve US supremacy in the world of politics and economics. 

Not even the possibility of a nuclear war!

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