林德宜 公共政策分析学者
自特朗普当选总统以来，特朗普在短时间内开始拆除以西方规则为基础的法律和国际秩序。讽刺的是，这正是美国一直以来作为主要受益者、定义者和执行者的国际政治和经济体系，也是自二战结束以来，美国为捍卫此体系而在全球范围内引发冲突和战争。
尽管美国在国际秩序中占据主导并经常处于霸权地位，但特朗普及其政府现在却拒绝这一体系，认为其对美国的利益不够有利。
针对当前秩序第一枪
目前，特朗普的目标是将全球体系更多地倾向于美国的利益，这包括：
●使加拿大和格陵兰岛（丹麦的自治领土）成为美国的一部分或对这两个北方邻国拥有更大的控制权
●通过军事或经济力量重新获得对巴拿马运河的所有权
特朗普的支持者认为，这不仅是回归门罗主义和“罗斯福推论”的必要举措，即带有领土扩张和新帝国主义的意识形态，也是确保美国安全和发展的必要措施，以防止俄罗斯和中国在西半球获得立足点。哥伦比亚现被美国视为下一个征服目标。
特朗普即将对加拿大、墨西哥、中国和其他被认为利用拜登经济政策而受惠的国家发动关税战的威胁，进一步印证了美国欲对现有地缘政治和国际关系的改变。特朗普认为，这些国家的政策摧毁了美国经济，使美国沦为失败国家。被针对的国家不仅包括被指责夺走美国就业机会的国家，还包括拒绝将工厂迁回美国的企业和公司。
特朗普在达沃斯世界经济论坛上对世界精英发表讲话时宣称：
三天前，我宣誓就职，我们开始了美国的黄金时代。……一些政治评论员，甚至一些所谓的敌人，都说这是129年来最重要的选举胜利……我们的国家很快将比以往任何时候都更强大、更富有、更团结，整个地球将因这种不可思议的势头和我们正在做的事情而更加和平和繁荣。
特朗普新美式和平
特朗普向世界宣布的不仅仅是一个新的安全、经济、政治和人权秩序。他本质上是在宣告一个新的美利坚治世宪章，以取代联合国宪章。值得注意的是，自1945年联合国宪章成立以来，特朗普和其他美国总统都一直在违反联合国宪章，但特朗普是唯一明确否定联合国宪章总统。
这一立场可以清楚地体现在特朗普对联合国在卫生、气候、环境和可持续发展方面的全球协议的反对上，更不用提和平与安全方面的协议。
目前，西方世界的美国盟友，包括台湾在内，正处于混乱之中，等待而来的可能是最坏的结果。在试图通过称赞特朗普的选举胜利和领导才能来迎合他的自尊心未果后，英国、加拿大、欧盟国家以及澳洲、日本、菲律宾、韩国和台湾等印太地区的领导人正争先恐后地确保他们和他们的国家不会在特朗普政府的未来四年中成为附带损害。
为了安抚特朗普在国际安全和地缘政治方面的需求，北约和其他美国盟友被迫将其国防开支提高到预算的5%或更多。这种军事支出的翻倍甚至三倍增长将使主要来自美国的武器制造商以及其他武器出口国获得暴利。日本、韩国、菲律宾和台湾也面临类似的压力，要求购买更多的美国军事装备。
这将使他们的世界变得更加不安全。这对美国来说是一把双刃剑，因为俄罗斯、中国、土耳其和伊朗——这些并非美国盟友的国家——也将从军售竞赛中受益。不幸的是，特朗普忽视了这种相反情况的危险，反而吹嘘说在他的监督下，世界将进入一个新的和平时代。
七国集团、北约和印太地区那些将美国视为大哥并支持美国外交政策的国家现在发现，旧的国际秩序正在被新的美式和平或美利坚治世所颠覆，在这个新秩序中，他们几乎没有发言权，他们的国家利益和关切将被边缘化或忽视。这是美国最新版本的民主、法治和人权。
这些国家还会发现，随著特朗普焦点在“让美国再次伟大”，他们将不得不遵守美国国内部门在经济、贸易、能源、移民和其他方面制定的政策，这些措施将通过制裁和更严厉的政策对他们的经济和相关利益产生不利影响。
在短期和中期内，特朗普“最重要的选举胜利”在美国以外的最重要的连锁反应就是对美国盟友的政治和政策的影响。来自西方的执政党领导人，倡导包容、进步、自由或绿色宣言的领导人，正意识到他们的政治立场与特朗普和执政的共和党相对立；而特朗普更倾向于来自保守和右翼政治光谱的盟友和领导人。
这一偏好在特朗普的就职典礼上向世界清楚展示，意大利总理梅洛尼和阿根廷总统米莱等保守派领导人，以及西方自由媒体所描述的来自英国、德国、法国和其他国家的极右翼政治家受邀参加，其中一些人占据了前排座位。显著缺席的是欧盟顶级领导人以及来自印太地区美国盟友的领导人。
与此同时，加拿大总理特鲁多的辞职被观察家视为特朗普反复的个人侮辱和羞辱的结果——特朗普在提议加拿大成为美国第51个州时，更称特鲁多为“州长”——这应该对包括英国首相斯塔默和澳洲总理阿尔巴尼斯在内的西方领导人及英国和澳洲的执政党是一个警告。
这也适用于亚洲的领导人，如果他们想继续掌权，他们必须支持和维护“让美国再次伟大”和美利坚治世。在美国的国际政治实践中，再次印证美国前国务卿亨利·基辛格的名言：
成为美国的敌人可能很危险，但成为美国的朋友是致命的。
支持台湾独立的人绝不可忘记这一点。
林德宜《特朗普瓦解西方法治和国际秩序：这将如何影响台湾》原文：Trump Collapses Western Rule of Law and International Order: How will this affect Taiwan
In the short period since his election, President Trump has started to tear down the edifice of western rules-based law and international order. Ironically this is the international political and economic system of which the USA has been its main beneficiary, definer and enforcer, and over which it has engaged in conflicts and wars around the world since the end of the second world war.
Although the US has held a dominant and frequently hegemonic position in the international order (IO), this very system is now rejected by Trump and his administration as not working sufficiently to the advantage of the US.
Opening Shots Against the Current Rules Based Order
For now Trump’s targets to skew the global system much more to American advantage are
● Making Canada and Greenland (a self government Danish territory) part of the US or to have much greater control of these two northern neighbours
● Regaining ownership over the Panama Canal by military or economic force
His fan club sees this not only as a needed return to the Monroe Doctrine and the Roosevelt Corollary with its territorial expansion and neo-imperialism ideology. It is also touted as a necessity to ensure the security and advancement of the US, and to prevent Russia and China from gaining any foothold in the western hemisphere. Colombia is now being targeted to kowtow to the US.
These opening shots in geo-politics and international relations are being reinforced by Trump’s threat of a soon to be launched tariff war against Canada, Mexico, China and other countries seen as taking advantage of Biden’s economic policies which, according to Trump, has destroyed the US economy and reduced it to a failed state. Targeted are not only countries accused of taking jobs away from the US but also businesses and companies that refuse to move their factories to make America great again.
Speaking to a gathering of the world’s elite at the World Economic Forum in Davos, he declared:
Three days ago, I took the oath of office, and we began the golden age of America. …And some of the political pundits, even some of my so-called enemies, said it was the most consequential election victory in 129 years…. Our country will soon be stronger, wealthier, and more united than ever before, and the entire planet will be more peaceful and prosperous as a result of this incredible momentum and what we’re doing and going to do.
Trump’s New Pax Americana
What Trump is announcing to the world contains more than elements of a new security, economic, political and human rights order. He is essentially proclaiming a new Pax Americana charter to replace the United Nations charter which he, and it should be noted, together with other US presidents have consistently violated since the charter was established in 1945 but which none until Trump has explicitly repudiated.
This position can be clearly seen in his stand against key UN global agreements on health, climate, environment and sustainable development, besides those on peace and security.
For now, US allies in the ‘free’ world, including in Taiwan, are in disarray and awaiting the worst. After unsuccessfully trying to suck up to Trump’s ego by lauding his electoral win and leadership qualities, leaders in the United Kingdom, Canada, European Union countries, and Australia, Japan, the Philippines, South Korea and Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific region are scrambling to ensure that they and their countries do not end up as collateral damage in the next four years of the Trump administration.
To placate Trump on the international security and geopolitical front, NATO and other US allies have been pushed to raise their defence expenditures to five or more percent of their budgets. This doubling or even trebling of military spending for US allied countries will see weapon manufacturers principally from the US but also other armament exporting countries reap windfall profits. Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Taiwan are under similar pressure to buy more US military equipment.
This will make their world more rather than less insecure. It is a double edged knife for the US since Russia, China, Turkey and Iran – not exactly allies of the US – will also benefit from an arms sale race. Unfortunately the dangers of this contrary scenario is lost to Trump who is boasting that the world will enter a new era of peace under his watch.
G7, NATO and countries in the Indo Pacific region that see the US as a big brother and support American foreign policy are now finding that the old IO is being upended for a new Pax Americana one in which they will have little or no say and which will see their national interests and concerns marginalised or ignored. This is the US latest version of democracy, rule of law and human rights.
They will also find that with Trump’s MAGA focus, they will have to comply with policies being formulated in the economic, trade, energy, immigration and other domestic US sectors that will adversely affect their economy and related interests through sanctions and more punishing policies.
In the short and medium term, the most important of the ripple effects of Trump’s “most consequential election victory” outside the US is its impact on the politics and policies of America’s allies. Leaders of governing parties from the West espousing inclusive, progressive, liberal or green manifestos are being made aware that their political positions stand in contrast to that of Trump and the ruling Republican party; and that his preference is for allies and leaders from the conservative and right wing of the political spectrum.
This preference was clearly showcased to the world during Trump’s inauguration ceremony which saw conservative leaders such as Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni and Argentina’s Javier Milei, and what western liberal media describe as far-right politicians from the UK, Germany, France and other countries invited, with some occupying front row seating. Prominently missing from the invitee list were top EU leaders as well as those from US allies in the Indo Pacific region.
Meanwhile, Justin Trudeau’s resignation as Canadian prime minister seen by observers as an outcome of Trump’s repeated personal insults and humiliation – Trump famously referred to Trudeau as “governor” when he proposed that Canada should become the 51st state of the US – should serve as a warning to leaders from the West, including Keir Starmer and Anthony Albanese, and their ruling parties in the UK and Australia. This also applies to leaders from Asia,
It is MAGA and Pax Americana that they have to support and uphold if they want to continue in power. In America’s practice of international politics, the famous quote of Henry Kissinger applies:
It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal.
Supporters of Taiwanese independence must never forget this.
